Risk and Uncertainty. Communication. David Spiegelhalter. Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, CB3 0WB Cambridge,. United Kingdom. The latest Tweets from David Spiegelhalter (@d_spiegel). Statistician Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. Own opinions. Cambridge . Communicating risk and. t i t th l f uncertainty: the role of metaphor and analogy. David Spiegelhalter winton professor for the public understanding of risk, p p g.
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Maynard produces short YouTube videos where he discusses the risks of electronic cigarettes or HPV vaccines, among other topics. Spiegelhalter uses his personal blog and Twitter account.
I work with a small team comprising Mike Pearson web and animationand Owen Smith web. To develop healthy coping skills during grad school, first I had to hit rock bottom By Elizabeth A. As a successful example of risk communication, Spiegelhalter mentions leaflets published by the U.
Googling ‘Uncertainty’ should find it. One way to do this is to raise issues with other researchers through online networks like ResearchGate. National Health Service about breast cancer screeningwhich he helped write and design. The issue divides the medical community, Spiegelhalter says, but the publication has been well received because it spells out risks and benefits clearly and uses real-life figures that the public can easily grasp.
He suggests that young scientists first watch what senior, high-profile scientists do. At UCS, Rosenberg advocates a somewhat more assertive posture.
Rosenberg advises that early-career scientists seek feedback and mentoring from other scientists. Scientists sometimes face personal attacks when they speak out about risk, Rosenberg admits, especially if their findings threaten economic interests.
World Champion at Loop I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos riso is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like fommunicating putting green than a pool table. Above all, your research and knowledge should be rock-solid, Spiegelhalter says: Measures taken then to curb overfishing helped some of the fish stocks recover, Rosenberg says.
For example, how a risk is spread over time and space will greatly change how people perceive it, writes Peter Sandman, a U. The lectures were nicely edited to try and make them more coherent, and can be viewed here. Provided their public statements are based on sound research methods and findings, scientists generally have no reason to worry about legal backlash.
Talking to the public about risk | Science | AAAS
Our work focuses on the appropriate use of quantitative methods in dealing with risk and uncertainty in the lives of individuals and society. Spiegelhater is spear-phishing, pretending to be me. And they are especially vulnerable: In and previous years I taught Part 1B Statistics – this is my teaching page. When he worked as a lead regulator in the Northeast, his studies of New England and mid-Atlantic fisheries inspired him to raise an alarm about overexploitation of the resource.
Me in action at the Port Eliot Festival where I won the Loop championship – this was done using a mixture of mathematical insight, a little skill arising from a mis-spent youth, and a huge dose of luck. Getting embroiled in a legal case could damage a budding career. He insists, however, that scientists should be careful not to overstep the fine line between helping people make decisions and telling them what to do.
You have to know what you’re talking about. This Centre, generously funded by the David and Claudia Harding Foundationis based in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics in Cambridge, and is dedicated to improving the way that quantitative evidence is used in society. Absolute risk expresses the likelihood of something happening as a percentage or ratio, while the relative risk compares risk levels in different groups. One of the most important aspects of communicating risk is to appreciate the extent and seriousness of the risk and to strike the right balance between informing and alarming.
Online tools provide cheap, easy opportunities to offer commentary on risk. While getting training in statistics or communication from your university or scientific society can provide you with tools to better communicate risk, your best safety net is probably your expertise.
By Elisabeth Pain Mar.
Understanding Uncertainty This is an educational resource featuring the use of probability and statistics in everyday life, and makes extensive use of animations to help ‘tell the story’ of the data. This is the home page for the book, and this is the resource site for teachers. Scientists with relevant comkunicating do, however, have a professional responsibility—even a duty—to communicate to the public the best possible evidence about risk, says Andrew Maynarddirector of the University of Michigan Risk Science Center.
Early-career scientists rarely sit on high-profile committees, but they may, nonetheless, uncover important information riek threats to security or wellbeing. By Francis Aguisanda Nov.
We are involved in a number of different areas: Alex describes the communicaying in detail on the official Loop page. In Aprilan earthquake hit the town of L’Aquila in central Italy, killing people. Hazard B has one chance in 10 of wiping out its neighborhood of 5, people sometime in the next decade. While scientists and risk professionals most often take a rational approach to deciding when a risk is big enough to speak up, they need to understand that the public or scientists outside their field of expertise may perceive and rank risks differently.
Using either of these can make risks look more or less important, depending on the context, Spiegelhalter says. They were convicted, the judge saidnot because they had failed to predict the earthquake, but because they had failed to analyze and explain the risks adequately and had given false reassurances to the townsfolk.
Talking to the public about risk
Researchers who raised the alarm about the risks of exposure to asbestos in the s faced backlash from asbestos manufacturers, for example. In L’Aquila, the absolute risk of a violent earthquake was low, but it was higher than usual, and the potential damage was high, so using an absolute figure could appear to minimize the risk.
Search Jobs Enter keywords, locations or job davkd to start searching for your new science career. We fall into the broad category of ‘public understanding of science’, while our work with schools can be considered as ‘maths outreach’.
UCS has also published an online guide to help researchers deal with harassment.
I am the reigning first and only World Champion in Loop, the version of pool invented by Alex Bellos that is played on an elliptical table with a single pocket in the baize – more like a putting green than a pool table.
Science communicaging December VolIssue What can we learn from Dartmouth?